USDJPY OPTIONALITY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKET AT 102/102.50

CHINA JILIN TRUST DEFAULTS ON RMB 873 MLN LOAN -- SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

This isn't healthy for my gold short :-( . 

MARKETS

Yesterday Europe walked in and started selling gold, I don't expect it to be any different today. Silver failed again at the previous top unable to get past 22 which triggered profit taking and fresh shorts. My yen trades are doing fine as well. Closed my audyen long and broke even on usdyen short.

Gartman says he is bullish on Gold as miners curtail production

Fade Gartman? He has had it wrong plenty of times but last call on Gold long was great.

S&P AND ITS UNDERLYING USDYEN FAILING AT HIGHS

I think we might see a short-term top in both usdyen and S&P500 index. Have shorts in yen crosses. In Audyen and usdyen with stops above recent highs. Leaving open targets, will readjust stops and observe for possible reversal price action.

Gold & Silver

Both have peaked near important resistance missed my target Gold at 1,334/Silver at 22.07. It fell on european open and in Asia session as well. Its never a good sign when Asia starts selling gold. Will be looking to see if we get a close below 1317.60 suppor0t. A close below 1,317.60 on Gold will enable a bearish key day reversal on the completion of a possible ABC equality off the Dec. 31st low at 1,334.

The high on Silver at 21.98 stands very close to the range break target at 22.07, derived from the horizontal pattern formed from early-Dec. ‘13 to Feb. ’14 on the double bottom. Overall, a good time to watch for signs of a turn developing.

Feel from traders is that the markets are bullish and the more bullish the traders are the more likely it is we have a short-term top.

S&P500 TECHNIAL

We are near an important resistance. There is an inverse head and shoulder. My rule of the thumb is usually, if its too obvious, don't trade it because most of the time it fails, but it has its downside it. If we do have a strong break, I think it will be a good buy. Lets see how it develops. 

SOROS NOW SHORT 1.3BILLION DOLLARS IN S&P STOCKS

BITCOIN DOWN 77% IN TWO WEEKS (950-220)

Oh well, nothing much to say.

EABL

"EABL has stopped daily operations at its Nairobi plant after the brewer posted the slowest first-half sales growth in four years".. Saw this on my feed. It sold off to shs240 as I had indicated. Waiting for the trashing to begin so that I can pick em cheap

RUMORS OF AN IMPENDING US-FRANCE LED STRIKE ON SYRIA IN THE COMING WEEKS SWIRLING AROUND THIS WEEKEND

Just for laughs (Stages of emotions of a trader)

MARKETS UPDATE

I am still holding my short position in Cable, I am trying to see if this usdyen will be pushed up by the buying wave in stocks, will consider increasing position in cable  if the next 4 hr candle closes red.  Meanwhile in the frontier markets picked this up on my feed.

Citi on Nigeria: "There are NO offers for USDs in NDF in any broker" but "Sanusi will defend the currency before the end of his tenure"

Go go Sanusi! Show them its not just SNB and BOJ who get to rule the currency markets :-)

UPDATE ON WEATHER

Yellen senate session cancelled. News will be released via government website.

AUDUSD

Data came out with a 19k miss in unemployment. The miss could be partially attributed to the adjustment of the way they calculate the figure. I suspect news algos picked up the figure without accounting for the adjustment hence the extended fall. There is a large expiration at .9000 in audusd which might be magnetic for the pair. I bought into the dip mid 8930s but exited 56. resistance currently at 8960/80 area. Move back above .9025 is likely to be bullish. I possibly expect sell of EM to have an effect on audusd. Support is at 8910/25 area.

MARKET UPDATE

Real money names seen selling emerging markets. Eurusd spiked earlier today during european open although its unclear on the reason. Leveraged names said to be behind the move. Cable higher as well with resistance now at 1.6667. Have entered into a small short position here with a tight stop looking for around 50pips dip.

GOLD(XAUUSD)

The metal has been up mainly on ME names buying in xauusd and silver. Reuters is reporting that indeed one of the Chinese credit agencies defaulted. I am neutral at the moment but 4 hr looks like we might have room for further upside in silver and gold. Here are my supports and resistances for 2/13/2014:

1296.16 1292.9196
1289.687301
1286.463083
1283.246925
1280.038808
1276.838711
1273.646614
1270.462497
1267.286341

1299.4004
1302.648901
1305.905523
1309.170287
1312.443213
1315.724321
1319.013632
1322.311166
1325.616944
1328.930986

MARKETS UPDATE

Cable news up ahead in about 90minutes. I expect a dip into the BOE and possibly after if news is dovish which will provide a good dip buying opportunity. M&A flows towards the end of the month expected to be gbp positive. Looking for a buy entry in eurusd near support at 1.3615 which is also a 50% retracement with a 30pips stop and 90 pips target. Gold looks bullish while above breakout point and will be looking for a dip buying opportunity possibly immediately after Newyork Open.

STOCKS UP AS DOW BREAKS 16000.

I expect usdyen to possibly play catch up on this upmove.

ARE WE GOING TO LEAVE THESE STOPS ABOVE 1.3700 UNTOUCHED?

If you are a dealer out there and you are reading this, please do something about them, I need a short position. :-D

Gold levels

Closing my gold long with $10 profit. Leaving my silver position at BE as I listen to Yellen being grilled on Bloomberg.

1284.09855

1290.519043

1296.971638

1303.456496

1309.973779

1316.523648

STOLPER TO LEAVE GS TO START OWN VENTURE

I will remember him for the bold euraud "trade of the century call" when the pair was at around 1.2 last year around April

NOTE TO SELF: DON'T ENTER TRADES JUST BECAUSE THE MARKET IS OPEN

Its a common mistake to want  to always be in the market. Unless you are providing liquidity to the market or scalping for a big hedge fund, its best to wait for proper opportunities in the market. Made that mistake yesterday was down 150pips and 24 hrs later is when I am recovering from the losses. There will always be opportunities in the market. As George Soros in his argument against the efficient market theory said, the market is all about formulating a hypothesis and testing it against the market. If it holds you make money, if it doesn't it means you are wrong. If you don't have any strong hypothesis or if your hypothesis gets negated, stay out of the market.

FRONTIER MARKETS (KPLC)

Had a chat during the weekend with someone who was involved in planning for an energy company. She confirmed that the law was indeed amended to accommodate an alternative distributor and that actually the alternative distributor is in the final stages before launching.  There is just some funding issues but they will use the currently existing national grid. I would expect share to dip once its official on the launch and would possibly advice reducing exposure in this company. Meanwhile Kengen is preparing for a rights issue, I would expect investors to exercise the rights but oh well, the market has its surprises.

GOLD&SILVER

Gold barely holding about breakout level and silver just hit 70.7% retracement. I will buy into this small dip in both metals with tight stop and see how it pans out.

BITCOIN (Clever Russians)

Umart, Russia’s Largest Online Retailer Drops Plan to Accept Bitcoin. Smart move that was imho.

EURJPY

The cross is approaching a 2m downtrend at 140.10-20 area. Wait for break before getting long

TRADE IDEAS.

Looking to short eurusd somewhere around 1.3715 with 90pips target and cable at around 1.6450 with about 40-50pips targets. Expecting possibly a run for the stops above 1.3700. Yen crosses currently being dragged higher by the rallying S&P500

FRONTIER MARKETS

Talk that there might be a big buyer gunning for CIC insurance shares about 80M. No idea if it will be a one off purchase or gradual to make it cheaper for the client. As I had posted here before, foreign investors are very optimistic about the insurance companies stocks over 3-5 years time.

BITCOIN FLASH CRASH

Bitcoin had a steep dive in seconds from $600 to $102, approx 80%. I am curious why any financial institution would accept a currency that can fluctuate up to 80% in seconds. Its unregulated, that just about the worst thing about it.

 Slow day in the rest of the market. Gold encountering resistance circa 75/81

EURO UPDATE

• GERMAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SAYS TO REFER ECB'S BOND-BUYING PROGRAMME TO EUROPEAN COURT  
• GERMAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SAYS IT WILL RULE ON LEGALITY OF ESM BAILOUT MECHANISM AND FISCAL PACT ON MARCH 18 
•  GERMAN COURT SAYS SEES SUBSTANTIAL REASONS TO SUGGEST OMT PROGRAMME EXCEEDS ECB MANDATE AND INFRINGES BAN ON FUNDING MEMBER STATES  
• GERMAN COURT SAYS IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT LIMITED INTERPRETATION OF OMT COULD MAKE IT CONFORM TO LAW

GOLD SUPPORTS AND RESISTANCES 2/7/2014 If having problems contact me

gold supports 1252.82 1246.5559
1240.323121
1234.121505
1227.950897
1221.811143
1215.702087
1209.623577
1203.575459

Resistances

1259.0841
1265.379521
1271.706418
1278.06495
1284.455275
1290.877551
1297.331939
1303.818599
1310.337692