CRUDE

Selling here for move below 100 based on fundamentals and technicals

S&P500

Anticipating decline in the index given the technical picture. Break of 1841 could see us retest 1800 lows. There was talk yesterday of large institutional sales going through the market.

NZDUSD

Sold some at 8665 here. Target open. The move feels over-extended

EURUSD

First time I saw this chart I thought it was the crude/brent spread charts. But its a clear picture of the divergence between interest and eurusd spot. The friend who sent it to me expects the spread to narrow which would see eurusd fall significantly, but that the theoretical part. The romp since Monday is narrowing and we are seeing less and less rise in the value. There are strong bids in the market at 1.3710 and offers at 1.3880

THE RUSSIAN RIGHT ON SCHEDULE!

They never seem to disappoint, our usual romp right on schedule and ongoing, eurusd jumped. Yen got bought, but should start getting sold off once the Russian is done dumping some dollars in the market.

EURJPY

Time for the romp? Its been left behind, all other yen pairs up. We need the Russian to show up :-)

GOLD

Fell according to schedule. Expecting the bids here at 1300 to provide higher entries for shorts, should they not hold, expect it to slip to 1280/60 area

GOLD

Gold looking to test bids at $1300, still overral bearish on gold, have reduced my oil shorts given the recent lower time frames price action. Gold fall should support yen crosses.

CRUDE OIL

Has a short-term top in place. Yesterday oil reports showed that indeed Iran had increased its oil supply in the market. Candle stick patterns on the daily indicative of a bearish day today.

RUSSIA IS THAT YOU?

Its seems like someone has been coming in and making large dollar sales at around 1600/1800GMT past two days. There has of course been the talk that Russia might be reducing its dollar assets exposure into other currencies.

GBPUSD

The pair is coiling up in a pattern similar to one formed yesterday before eurusd jumped almost 100pips higher.

CRUDE OIL

Major oil releases coming out which explains the volatility in oil. We have a short-term top in place at the moment but caution advised ahead of the releases. Targets for shorts at 98 at the moment.

YEN

Same story, still expecting yen sell off into Japanese year end

FRONTIER MARKETS (EABL)

Courtesy of live.mystocks.co.ke

Share has broken out of its bearish channel and is trading right below 270 resistance. A daily close above 270/280 needed for further upward momentum

KENOL FRONTIER MARKETS

The share is trading below psychological level shs.10 a share. Looking steady for further gain but we have a counter-trendline coming in at shs. 10.50/11 a share break of which could see the share gain circa shs.4 a share which is equivalent to gains of 40%

Chart courtesy of FT

GOLD

Large bids into $1300. Still expecting this slide to continue even if we manage to get a bounce. Should the level not hold, we are likely to see further slide below 1300

YEN

I am buying yen crosses. Anticipating BOJ to ease aggresively as we head into the Japanese financial year close so as to favor their corporates.

GOLD (XAUUSD)

I expect it to play sideway during Asia or further downside. I also expect sell-off tomorrow on early European session and on London open as traders digest the bond taper news. We finally get to see the gap filled? I think so but incase we rally back to the 40s will definitely be shorting.

MY FAVORITE GOLD SELLER WAS SPOT ON AGAIN

Gold down at $1332. He has been pretty good at picking tops.

MY FAVOURITE SELLER IN GOLD IS BACK IN THE MARKET :-)

DR.COPPER DOWN ON THE DAY

Negative for the commodity currencies. Its likely to revive concerns over performance of the Chinese economy. Last time it fell, a company was later announced to have defaulted. Which one is next on the line?

GOLD

Staying on the sidelines for now, no clear direction. Price action on lower  timeframes signaling a retrace but larger time frames signals more downside.

GOLD (XAUUSD)

The yellow metal is currently trading below the 61.8% retracement of the move higher from the pre-Cremea invasion lows. a close below 46 in the next 15 mins and I will be shorting with a tight stop for a move to $1335. Close above and we might get a push higher.

AUDUSD

Its starting to feel like it might make a push higher given the lack of fresh sellers here. Carefully watching it and will exit shorts on the very first few bullish signs.

UPDATE:  Exited, not comfortable about this trade.

GOLD & OIL

Crude oil looks like a double bottom in place. Currently needs a move above 99.73 for a breakout retest continuation patter. Major resistance at $100, it might struggle to get above given there is no compelling fundamentals to push it higher at the moment. Will be looking to short on a confirmed move below support or light buying on break above 99.73 with a tight stoploss.

Gold looking weak at the moment. Might try to trigger stops before the FOMC tonight. Market seems to be anticipating further tapering.

AUDUSD

Feels a little over-done here on the upmove. Looking to squeeze 50pips from here. Currently trading at .9124.

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Broken back below support. Targeting a move towards 1365 in the short-term.

FRONTIER MARKETS (TREASURY YIELDS)

Something very interesting here. US treasuries experienced a drop in $108billion worth bond holdings last week. Theories being provided are that Russia is behind the drop in anticipation of Sanctions from the US or possibly investors shying off from US bond market amid the political uncertainties. Our 10 year bond yield dropped during the same period and formed a bearish hammer on the technical charts. Is it possible that those investors came to our bond market? I get a feeling that our Eurobonds will get over-subcribed in the market. Have attached the 10year bond chart.

CRUDE OIL

I am currently short. Feels heavy from here 98.80s and we are likely to test lower. Resistance at 99.30

RUSSIAN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS ON THE RISE

Russian credit default swaps on a sharp rise. They are hedges against corporate bonds default. Shows the risk aversion at the moment. Events create investment opportunities :-)

GOLDMAN ON AUTRALLIAN JOB FIGURES

"AUD job distortion rotation group for Feb 14 survey had a higher proportion of employed persons in the labour force than sample it replaced"- Someone definitely messed up with the sampling method used.

RUSSIAN STOCKS

The Russian stock index has had a steep dive since the Cremea invasion. With threats on sanctions coming in, I think we should expect the stocks to cheapen further before a sharp bounce possibly after the situations stabilizes. It is definitely something to watch.

Russian crude transit to Europe via Ukraine stable despite ongoing standoff over Crimea-Transneft official

But Russia is threatening Ukraine with Iranian style sanctions :-( . The bulk of Russian oil passes through Ukraine, Ukraine only need to turn off the taps imho.

CRUDE

Break of 98.39 needed for higher. I will trail it with no specific target.

SILVER

Silver currently breaking to the upside. I think it might rally to 22

GOLD & OIL

The bounce in crude has been very shallow and is now consolidating around lower levels. This is not healthy for a bullish retracement. Gold is also consolidating higher below the $1375 resistance break of which might open move higher for $1400.

SENATE PANEL PASSES UKRAINE BILL INCLUDING AID TO UKRAINE, SANCTIONS ON RUSSIANS AND UKRAINIANS; BILL NOW HEADS TO FULL SENATE FOR VOTE

Headline coming from Zerohedge. Putin's aides had threatened to instruct their bond traders to sell bonds in the market and to fail paying back debt owed to the US but I doubt that is possible, it would set a bad precedent for Russia in the debt market which would make their borrowing costs rise hence hurt their economy imho.

CRUDE OIL

The move feels over-extended and if we can get a close above 108.25 then we might correct much higher. The only problem is that Asians are going to walk in to news that US increased oil supply in the market and possibly start selling. We hit a counter trendline , 50% fibo level is at 108.20.

Update, currently trading above the 50% fibo

CITI ON THE INCREASE IN OIL SUPPLY IN THE MARKET

Citi: US oil fuels equity bounce News that the US government has released crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a test drawdown has resulted in equities staging a decent bounce. The front-month S&P is now up 1.8 at 1867 from a low of 1854.20. fastFT writes that “The US Department of Energy said it would offer up to 5m barrels of sour crude oil for sale. The US mainly produces light sweet oil, but the crude it is selling is similar to that of Russia.” It quotes one analyst as saying this is a signal. The reaction in FX is more modest. EURUSD remains bid, while USDRUB has eased to 36.48.

APPRECIATION FOR BLOG VISITS

I have been getting a lot of blog visits recently with the bulk of my audience coming from the UK and US. I hope my input is helpful for mostly commodity traders as I have recently started focusing more on those. I appreciate your visits given that I have never marketed it and originally intended to use it as my trading journal. Thank you very much. :-)

U.S to release oil from SPR

This is old news in the market, saw it on my feed hours ago but I think its now getting into the wires given the drop we have seen in crude oil prices in the past few minutes. A close on 4hr charts below 98.10 would signal further push lower anything otherwise would be neutral to me. Had short but exited prematurely at 98.65 playing it cautiously. The spread between brent and crude continues to widen further today. I think it is because the increase in supply in the market only affects Crude as it is mainly produced in the US where the bulk of supply increase in the market  is expected to come from. Nothing much on Brent in the supply front.

BRENT (UKOIL)

Someone needs to convince the algos to let go of this one. We need one large order to slam it into a trend.

Ukraine surrounded by up to 80K Russian troops, 270 tanks, 370 artillery systems,140 warplanes,19 warships.-PZ

I hope this gives us better prices in oil

Leveraged names buying in eurusd

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Seems an early New York buyer has stepped in with good volume. It would be very bullish if we get a 4hr close above $1362

EURUSD

Decent sized buying went through circa 1.3759

AUDUSD

Decent sized buy going through the market in audusd. Copper reversing too

AUDUSD

Move lower seems overdone

BRENT OIL (UKOIL)

Breaking lower from its consolidation but not follow through yet so keeping shorts light.

USDCAD 200 MA ON 4HR CHART

It has held so nicely.

GOLD CONSOLIDATION

Gold consolidating. Watching market how it develops. Break could see it targeting $1375 then $1425

TRADING QUOTES VIDEO

Compiled some awesome trading quotes I came across on the weekend on Edmatts twitter page. Its a bit shady but I hope you enjoy.

CRUDE

We have a massive head and shoulder pattern in crude. Its too obvious and it usually fails when its too obvious. Fundamentally still bearish on crude but lets wait and see what happens.

Russia Warns US Against "Illegal" Ukraine Bailout; Ukraine Commences Live-Fire "Drill" With Tanks- Zerohedge

This should see oil bounce before everyone remembers Libya increased their output threefold today!

Update: Market did remember, we are back below $100 

GOLD

I totally don't get why it fell in the first place. Its a safe haven. Currently making another attempt at the counter-trendline. Lets wait and see if we can get a break

Oil

Traders are probably remembering the sharp bounce from circa $100 per barrel hence possibly the profit taking. Have also closed my trade. Stops below 100 taken out but we are technically targeting 99.50

Crude.

This chart is so beautiful. No need to say anything

Talk that Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric (600550 SH), a Chinese state owned company is rumored to be on cusp of a bond default

I think we should expect more of these headlines. I also think it would be healthy for their financial system to allow the defaults to happen.

UPDATE: Market seems to be reacting to this. 

BRENT (UKOIL)

Brent has been consolidating in a triangle for long now, wearing out trend followers like me :-( . I get a feeling the next move will be explosive. We have been having regular high volume jump on Tuesdays around 1900GMT, wondering where it has been coming from, appears super-bullish, then slumps lower to test the rising trendline. Its sure something to watch how it develops given that the brent/crude spreads have been widening.

*UKRAINE TANKS, ANTI-AIRCRAFT UNITS TRAINING IN EAST: MINISTRY

Oil market doesn't even look like it cares anymore

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Large stops above $1355. Waiting for the regular gold algo to sniff them out.

Libya’s Sharara pumping 150K b/d; will reach full capacity (340K b/d) tmrw, NOC spokesman says Expand

Bearish for oil

OIL & GOLD

Have reduced shorts in oil and taken a gold long on this breakout

OIL-RUSSIAN TROOPS OPENED FIRE DURING TAKEOVER OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY POST IN CRIMEA, NO ONE WOUNDED

The fact that there has hardly been any bounce in oil should be comforting for bears out there like me

LIBYAN PARLIAMENT ORDERS MILITARY OPERATION TO "LIBERATE" REBEL-HELD OIL PORTS TO START WITHIN A WEEK-SPOKESMAN - RTRS

Oil still holding its bearish trend intra-day :-)

Update: Crude bounced 30cents on the news

GOLD FEED COMMENTARY

"We can see liquidation from the Shanghai futures exchange and there is no fresh buying interest on the physical side,"said Peter Fung

GOLD

Technically we have a double top with a $20 short target with all factors held constant. Support strong circa $1328. Will be looking for bearish signs intra-day.

OIL

Charts look bearish. Already short intra-day

RUSSIA HOLDS LARGE-SCALE AIR DEFENSE DRILLS IN WESTERN DISTRICT, RIA NOVOSTI SAYS

That explains the risk aversion and sharp oil bounce off lows. This sort of headlines are likely to see oil close higher into the weekend due to the political uncertainties.

OIL

Have been researching into Brent (UKOIL) this morning and it struck me that its grossly overvalued and should be trading at lower levels fundamentally. Looking at the Brent and Crude oil charts, the spreads have been widening since 2010 and there was a time when both were trading at the same level. The spread can be explained by simply demand and supply forces where the availability of one forces the prices upwards. Technically we need a sustained move below yesterday's low which coincides with a very good support. I don't see Ukraine/Russia situation weighing in much on Brent. Currently watching the resistance at 108.20 but will definitely be looking for short positions intra-day with all factors held constant.

CRIMEAN OFFICIALS ASK PUTIN TO EXAMINE REQUEST TO JOIN RUSSIA-AFP

Their parliament has voted on joining Russia, still I don't see how politicians can represent popular views. They are easier to manipulate.

Referendum on Crimea status will be held on March 16 - Ria

Ukraine's Yatsenyuk is saying that Russia Is Still Provoking

Explains the blip higher in oil

CABLE

Cable looks bearish. Failed at the counter-trendline.

GOLD & OIL

I will be honest and say that I don't know where oil is headed to today. Had a good run and managed to catch the entire move lower. Both Brent and Crude broke below important levels and Crude is currently trading just below the 101 resistance. Gold looks bearish on the daily, just from the price action. Have placed a sell at 1336 with just a $3 stop and an open target. Will wait and see how it develops.

Update on cable: I hate cable :-p ...  I got stopped out yesterday on my 15 pips stop. Will be watching the price action and will only sell on a firm break back below the counter-trendline.

THINK TANK SAYING THAT SNB LIKELY TO INTRODUCE NEGATIVE RATES

Bad for the Swiss Franc.

USDYEN BIG SWINGING BAT UP HERE 102.60

Seen Milan post on a forum there a decent sized offers in the 102.60/55 region. Its not in line with my exectations of its underlying S&P500, so I am going to just watch buyers and sellers battle it out then throw a few coins to bet on who will look like he will win this one ;-)

MARKET UPDATE

ADP report came out negative as expected. You didn't need to be a genius to see that coming. Cable failing at the aforementioned level. I think they are about to shove Brent under the bus. Its currently trading at pre-Ukraine lows.

CABLE

Smash it from here 1.6710/20 area? The Vodafone deal effect ends today.

ADP Non-Farm employment change

Given how gold has held off with all the other assets unwinding, I have a feeling that data might come out weaker than expected.

GOLD

I am in the money on this one after the call for a short position, but one worrying thing is the ADP data ahead. I dont like getting caught up in the volatility swings in the markets as my stop is pretty tight. I will be hoping it would be lower before the news so that. Looking to long audchf.

FRONTIER MARKETS (SAFARICOM)

Days ago we after Whatsapp was acquired by Facebook, they came out and announced on plans to launch free calls next quarter. Companies in the developing markets have seen significant drop in revenues after emergence of free application to application text and calls services which haven't been particularly dominant.

Safaricom gets its revenues from the two businesses in the following propotions.
 Voice Revenue 63.3% of Total Revenues
SMS Revenue  9.6% of Total Revenues

If Safaricom does not strategize enough to take advantage of the data provision market plus diversifying into other services, this might see them suffer significant drop in revenues especially as banks make public of their intentions to aggressively compete in the mobile banking market. Possibly a repeat of the Telkom business.

OIL

Both UK and US oil facing resistance at 109.20 and 103.60 respectively.

FRONTIER MARKETS: MARKET TALK THAT CENTUM INV TO RAISE BID TO KSH.75 FROM kSH50

The bidding war continues...

US considers sanctions on Russian banks -FT

CRUDE OIL

Technically looks like a close below 103.20 would be very bearish on the daily.

GOLD & OIL

Sold gold here tight 30pips stop. Brent resuming its teasing play, appearing very bullish then pushing higher to kill sellers, then pushing lower, like Rodeo. I am going to try and short it here as I think the first thing Asians will do when they walk in is possibly start fading earlier moves prior to resumption of normality during New York selling. 

FRONTIER MARKETS (EGARD UP ON THE REA REVISED DEAL)

This came out yesterday on bloomberg "REA Trading Ltd., based in London, increased its offer to 70 shillings per share from 40 shillings per share, according to a statement e-mailed today from the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. Shareholders who accept the offer will be entitled to a portion of funds resulting from the future sale of land for up to 15 shillings per share, it said."

Seems the market is convinced that there is now good value in investing in Agricultural companies as most of them are grossly undervalued. EGARD looks like a good candidate for a buyout.

FRONTIER MARKETS (KE)

Share prices are currently flat despite rise in listed banks’ profits markets. Even more notable, PAFR down 13% after reporting brilliant performance yesterday, trying to get an explanation for the dive in PAFR shares. Short-term peak? EGARD I think is up because of what happened to Rea. Most Agricultural companies are undervalued.

OIL & GOLD

I reported yesterday that the moves looked way overdone as the market was responding less and less to adverse rumors coming from Russia. I think the market could potentially start unwinding a large percentage of those moves and I am currently short with tight stops incase anything comings out of Russia.

RUSSIAN FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS SUSPENDING CURRENCY PURCHASES ON MARKET ON MARCH 4 DUE TO VOLATILITY

PUTIN MIGHT WITHDRAW FROM CRIMEA

Viadimir Putin may withdraw from Crimea if US introduces strict financial sanctions similar to the comprehensive Iran santions accountability and divestment act of 2010(CISAD). Without access to international financing Gazprom would not be able to build the South stream pipeline-Putin's pet project

Putin to give press conference in an hour

Some tweet feeds are suggesting it might start at 0830GMT

OIL

There is an argument on Bloomberg tv that Russia is going to do all they can to get their oil to the market to recover the costs incurred during the Olympics. I think the move higher might be overdone in the short-term given that the response to bad news is becoming more and more muted.

UKRANIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY SOURCE SAYING THAT RUSSIAN FLEET HAS GIVEN UKRANIAN FORCES UNTIL 0300GMT TO SURRENDER OR FACE STORM-INTERFAX