Lets romp this usdyen for green close.

Rumors of a good Chicago PMI

USDJPY

Talk BOJ sitting with bids at 102... They probably are trying to stall a break below 101.75

USDJPY

Decent sized Japanese investor bid at 102. Stops clustered below 101.75. There are concerns being expressed as to the impact of a potential financial market turmoil on Japan in the emerging markets which are main export partners with Japan. Could force BOJ to ease more.

AUDUSD

Managed to get into a short position before the break of the uptrend. Booking half here at .8710

END MONTH FLOWS

Expect eurusd selling during London fixing

US BASED EMERGING MARKET STOCK FUNDS POST $2.6 OUTFLOW, BIGGEST OUTFLOW SINCE FEBRUARY 2011-LIPPER

Picked up the headline from Zerohedge. I think this has just began and expect to see more slump in emerging market stocks because of the Fed tapering. It will likely have a domino effect on majority of the emerging market stocks and possibly trickle down to frontier markets. We have already seen a drop in share values in the Nairobi Stock Exchange with Foreign participation reducing to circa 47%.

"BoAML: Harnett Flow Show: First Signs of Panic: Bottom Line: EM debt and equity funds see combined outflows of $9.1bn; magnitude which almost rivals outflows during Taper (May'13), Debt Ceiling (Aug'11) and Lehman (Sep'08). Outflows over past 3 months are substantial; $42bn or 4% AUM. Specifically, “stampede” out of equity ETF's; $12.3bn redemptions which are the largest since Jul'12. It is also the largest EM equity fund outflows since Aug'11 ($6.4bn). $15bn outflows over next 2-3 weeks will trigger contrarian "buy" signal from our EM Flow Trading Rule (3% threshold). In fixed income, note largest EM debt fund outflows since Jun'13 ($2.7bn) with the selling concentrated in local debt markets. Commodities continue to be shunned, with largest outflows in 5 weeks ($1.5bn)." Here is an interesting commentary by BOAML that I picked up from Milan:

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Gold looks heavy on the daily charts. Immediate support at 1238.05. Other generated supports are:

1231.85975

1225.700451

1219.571949

1213.474089

1207.406719

1201.369685

1195.362837

Resistance

1244.24025

1250.461451

1256.713759

1262.997327

1269.312314

1275.658876

1282.03717

MICROSOFT PREPARING TO MAKE NADELLA CEO

DIAGEO SHARE TRADING HALTED INITIALLY TODAY

Shares of the world's largest distiller were halted earlier today following a 10% drop in 5 mins being attributed to 'fat finger'. The share recovered after. I bet its one of those aggressive algos.

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Gold currently trading between 1251.23 and 1257.52:-Levels: Calculated from 1270.19 resistance

1263.83905

1257.519855

1251.232255

1244.976094

1238.751214

1232.557458

1226.39467

Upside of 1270.19 resistance

1276.54095

1282.923655

1289.338273

1295.784964

1302.263889

1308.775209

USDJPY

Decent sized bids seen into 102

EURUSD

Hearing semi-official bidding into near lows in eurusd. Watching eurusd on smaller time frames to see if I can get a good entry

Eurusd

Had reported on China selling eurusd into 1.3700 and they held the fort, pair currently targeting stops below 1.3600

Vague talk of Soros actively bidding and raising offers in usdjpy last night LDN

Someone please confirm to me via email or comment on some news I am hearing that Soros was active in the market last night LDN in usdjpy

IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING......

Intervention by the Turkish central bank lead to emerging markets currency rally

Big moves higher for all emerging market currencies. * USDZAR falling on the back of the move from Turkish central bank. * The lending rate raised to +425bp to 12% against a 225bp raise expected. * The repo rate and borrowing rate were expected as unchanged and raised 550bp and 450bp. * The liquidity rate was raised to 15% from 10.25%

USDJPY

Kampo bids in the market again. I have a strong feeling a good reversal is going to materialize soon. Have bought usdjpy here and will add into 102 with a stop on break below 101.50

USDTRY

Bought a few here. I think buying into 1.2200 is a good bargain. AUDUSD short doing well :-) ... Decided to close 2/3 of my position and just trail it. I think we have a short-term double top in audusd which could yield an extra 50-70pips.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Support and resistances intra-day support at 1248.71 then: 29/01/2009

1242.46645

1236.254118

1230.072847

1223.922483

1217.802871

1211.713856

Resistances

1254.95355

1261.228318

1267.534459

1273.872132

1280.241492

1286.6427

1293.075913

China selling into 1.3700 in eurusd

Barrier defence?

CHINA. SITUATION EXAGERRATED?

I am in the middle of a heated debate in a certain forum with regards to the China situation. A certain agitated Chinese national from one of the big asset management companies is urguing that the western media and analysts are highly exagerrating the situation in China wherelese the situation isnt as bad as they are purpoting it to be. There have been speculations for the past 20 years about how bad the Chinese economy and about imminent collapse but nothing really has happened. My take? Well, it doesnt really matter who is right or wrong and there may be truths in both sides of the story but you will go bankrapt while trying to be right. The market operates on demand and supply and if the market thinks that the rich have been stuffing money abroad in anticipation, well, go with it. Us in the frontier markets are pretty much used to it. The media looks for stories that sell, it doesnt matter whether its factual. If news pops up on bloomberg about China that certain things will happen, go ahead, if the market believes it, bet on it and make your 2-cents.

Xauusd

Havent logged into my charts and reuters since Sunday, but looking at the charts on mobile, gold feels heavy on the daily, watch of 1250 breaks, I think will target lower. Will post supports and resistances later. Situation in Argentina if it worsens is likely to see grain prices higher as farmers withhold from exports. Theoreticaly that translates to lower supply and higher prices

USDJPY

The pair looks poised to test 103.70/80 resistance. Talk of Kampo bids actively seen in the market

Audusd

Have just sold audusd at .8796 sl .8856. First tp 40 pips then move sl to BE.

Usdcad

RM name behind latest push higher. Still targeting 1.1700

S&P tracking brazillian stocks

Autocorrelation has been very close to 1 today

March T-bills rocket higher over debt ceiling concerns

You would expect plenty of demand for t-bills after concerns on China shadow banking and fall in stocks in emerging markets, but yields are rocketing higher to post debt ceiling levels.

Markets

Offers into 8770 here in audusd

CITI ON CAD

Citi says that the cad selling in the past 4 weeks is the strongest in their data

BREAKING: US ATTORNEY FILES CHARGES AGAINST BITCOIN

I figured this had to happen. I am not a conspiracy theorist but no way the big banks would let it prosper, but in any case bitcoin is unlikely to replace regulated currencies

Update: Russia bans bitcoin

CHINA CREDIT TRUST COMPANY DEFAULT AVERTED

Thanks to my friend Bokai, hearing that one of the big 4 asset management companies took over.

Usdjpy

Offers into 102.70 from leveraged names

AT&T denies rumors about them buying UK Vodafone

Had been tracking this especially to see if they were to buy Vodafone Africa investments, but oh well :-(

USDJPY

Pair currently above 102.07 Retracement Support. Watching to see how it holds next week. The pair fell further on Friday easily absorbing rumored Kampo bids into 102.90 on Friday.

FRONTIER MARKETS: KQ FORTUNES TURNING AROUND?

Current prevailing conditions for the company shares are pretty similar to what was there before the company shares rose by 400% in 6 weeks. The company has been successfully replacing its airplanes and are set to buy 6 more Boeing 787 airplanes in addition to their most recent purchase. The airplane cuts their fuel consumption by up to 20%. Their fuel derivatives are maturing in March, if the global fuel prices stay suppressed below the forward contracts level, they are likely to report a significant fuel derivatives gain. According to their published financial reports, they stand to make 200Million for every 1% drop in fuel prices. The Kenyan airport is also expanding to accommodate 9 million passenger by 2017. They are increasing the number of local flights. Given that its a government corporation, they are likely to be major beneficiaries once oil mining commences in Kenya. Personally I am very optimistic given the low market capitalization that the share value will double in about 6 months from current 13.50 price driven by speculative demand.

SOUTH KOREA TO HOLD EMERGENCY MEETING ON 26TH JANUARY TO DISCUS THE MARKETS

Its pretty bad everywhere, stocks had a bad performance last week in a number of contries with among worst affected being Argentina and Brazil(fear of trickle down effect) barely a week after IMF said they were optimistic about the global economy. IMF have a bad history of growth projections with a notable 50% miss in their 2012 projections. My biggest concern is the Chinese shadow banking. I think Soros made a smart move in selling banking stocks. Am still holding my apple stock hopely it will weather all these adverse global market turndown.

HSBC

Talk that HSBC could be experiencing capital shortages doing the rounds. The bank Changed its withdrawal policy requiring that withdrawals be accompanied by a satisfactory explanation.

UPDATE: HSBC withdrew the explanation requirement.

RUMORS

Rumor doing the rounds of a possible China sovereign downgrade.

USDJPY

Us names and ACB buyers in recent move up. In buy position as well from 103.31 sl 40pips. I think yesterday's move was overdone.
Update: Got stopped out. Will monitor yields.

BIS seen selling eurusd at 1.3695.

Carney scraps Bank of England Forward guidance target for UK

Its negative for gbp

CHINA: Coops unable to pay farmers:

Looming banking crisis? Zerohedge running an article on how people withdrawing are being turned away. No one wants to save.

EMERGING MARKETS

Stocks in the emerging markets all down today. South Africa, Turkey and Argentina on the forefront of the slump, as a result we have seen bond buying in the market. It could be as a result of worries about China's possible slow down and emergence of credit crisis. AUDUSD the usual culprit down as well.

Calling out to my friends in forex funds

Please dump $100million or so into the market we get rid of this 8750 barrier :-D
UPDATE:Thank you for that. Barrier is now history

Markets update

Cable running into 200 monthly MA. Gold short covering materialized as I had indicated in the morning. Now headed for 1267 resistance. Support at 1260. I have a feeling audusd will clear 8750 barrier later on. Low so far at 8762.

Li: China facing 'severe' situation in 2014

Aud came under pressure on the news

XAUDUSD

CNBC providing this explanation for recent short-covering: Gold got a boost from news that India’s Gandhi Seeks Easing Curbs on Gold Imports. Move has stalled near 1248.32 resistance break of which will open move towards next resistance at 1254. Support now at 1242.

USDTRY

Turkish CB has been in the market this morning intervening with close to $1billion. As part of rebalancing after interventions, I would expect to see them selling into eurusd very soon. Lets see for how long they can sustain the selling.

UPDATE ON THE CHINA 31st JANUARY DEFAULT STORY.

Talk doing the rounds:

• The two big institutions behind the dodgy issue are going to take responsibility and bailout 1/4 of the payments each. Meaning that at least 50% will be covered.
• The regional government in Shanxi province will bailout the other 50%. 

 The product was a 498mm USD issue which was a high yielder designed to support  coal mining company which collapsed when the management was arrested.
Investors are complaining that their capital was 100%. (Hard not to laugh at this one :-D)
I had said before that it was unlikely the central government would let it default and that seems to be them working in the shadows, but this is a symptom of an ailing credit system and its likely we hear about another default very soon. I am not going to hold my breath though.

MARKET UPDATE

Hearing retailers rushing to short into this rally eurusd, usually a bad sign :-( .  Resistance at 1.3640 now. Have booked by 80 pip profit and will wait on the sidelines). Looking to long gbpjpy, confident we might see further weakeness in yen and strength on gbp).

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Jim Rodgers was out yesterday saying that there are too many short positions in the market and he expects a short-covering rally to clear weak shorts to materialize soon. There has been ME names buying in the market and I also think we are likely to see a short-covering rally soon. I usually trade intra-day by observing price on my support and resistances. Break of one level in most instances usually targets and hits the other as target and I use them for positioning stoplosses and targets. I can get more support and resistances but that would make the chart rather untidy hence preference to avail these ones. Calculated from current support 1235.93 Intra-day(Recalculated daily, plot them on your chart today and see how they pan out)

Supports

1229.75035

1223.601598

1217.48359

1211.396172

1205.339191

  Resistance 

1242.10965

1248.320198

1254.561799

1260.834608

1267.138781

1273.474475

MY 2-CENTS: GOOD TRADERS

I was having a conversation with a friend from one of the largest private hedge funds in the world yesterday and he gave me some few very good pointers. He said that as much as most trainers or traders lay emphasis on fundamental and technical analysis, the best traders in the world rarely use them. He went on to tell me that they sometimes just look at the price and judge from just the price ladders. They use instinct. Instinct isn't something you develop in the market in a day, its from continuously doing the same thing over and over that you have a feel of the market. When you spend time in the market, you become part of it and that makes you a superior trader and that is the talent fund managers look for.They know when price hits a certain level and fails a couple of times they instantly take positions as high frequency traders and make money from spreads as well. Bottomline is that, if you want to be a good trader, practice and get as much screen time as you can get.

AUDUSD

Option barrier at 0.8750. They are normally speed bumps in the market, but I am avoiding shorting ahead of the barrier and will consider selling into a break of the barrier. (UPDATE: My eurusd long has rallied nicely backed by ME demand :-) )

EURUSD

ME names seen buying eurusd on latest move up. Bought at 1.3551. stoploss below low at 25. The downmove keeps stalling at 1.3520/3490 support area.  Was unable to update on gold yesterday, I usually make intra-day trades on gold and close at the end of New York session, will be posting the supports and resistances I use that I consider very accurate later on in the day.

Markets

Gold failed to break lows and earlier went long at 1239, with a stop at 1234. There were reports of middle East buying today. Missed cable long, will wait for a decent retracement lower. Looking for an entry in GBPAUD as well for the long haul. Have just booked profits in my usdcad short 2/3 of the trade. Waiting to see if the price action can yield more.

USDCAD

Pair broke through 2009 highs. My advice would be not to chase the move higher after it ran into a wall of offers. Look for nice retracement. Next resistance at 1.1040.  Sold at 1.1010 looking for a 50 pips drop with stop at 30

EURUSD

Looking for a short position around 100DMA here at 1.3568 level

CHINA STARTING THEIR NEW YEAR WITH A MEGA DEFAULT?

Chinese State media reported that China Credit Trust Co. warned investors that they may not be repaid when one of  its wealth management products matures on January 31st. AUDUSD  a tad lower.

Amudi likley to add more Chinese stocks to their portfolio

The  750 Billion Euros fund may add Chinese stocks to its holding. They see government reforms sparking growth in the second largest economy. The move would mark a return to emerging markets for the firm's absolute return funds which are flexible to invest in any asset class in the world.

SKYNEWS on UK

Skynews says that IMF report on GDP for 2014 leaked to them - says UK GDP f'cast to rise more than any other major economy to 2.4% from 1.9%. Bummer! I thought it was official. Oh well :-) . Cable at 1.6440. There was talk about a Vodafone deal as well that is likely to see demand on dips.

CRUDE OIL

Lower today. There was an article on WSJ today on oil oversupply concerns. As I had posted before, I am still long-term bearish on oil and cant see any serious reversal signs yet.

FOREX PRO & CONS

Pros of forex trading

Leverage - Its pretty complicated explaining how this works at this stage if you are starting. Its one of the major characteristics of futures. What it simply means that you can earn a lot of money with a relatively small investment relative to normal stocks or asset trading.

Round-the-clock trading - Markets are open 24 hours a day, five days a week. This is because of the varying time zones, they overlap. The New York stock exchange opens when the London one is closing. The markets are only closed on weekends based on a standard time. This means that you can trade at any time of day or night that is comfortable for you.

Lower fees - One of the biggest advantages of the forex market is that there are fewer fees involved, in comparison to other markets like the stock exchange. There is no commission. In forex trading, fees are normally limited to the spread (the difference in value between the two currencies being traded) of the transaction. Lower fees means that you have more money to save, invest, or spend on other things.

Online services and tools - You can trade from the comfort of your own home. With even mobile platforms, you can literally even trade from anywhere you are. Say you were in a toilet and China refused to buy Soyabeans, you can sell the futures and make money! Online services and tools have made it easy for even beginners to understand, monitor, and analyze the market. Furthermore, the Internet allows you to start trading within a few clicks. Make use of all of the tools and services available to you. This will put you in the best position to make income in the forex market.

Automated trading software - Another advantage of forex trading is that you can use automated trading software that can make transactions for you depending on how you programmed the software. They are called algos. They never sleep, not emotional and only need performance tracking. This makes it easier to make trades at the right time and in the right situations.

Cons of forex trading
* Learning curve: It might take some people longer to learn how to trade. It depends on your learning speed, IQ and screen time. There are those who learn how to trade in relatively very short time. Anyone can do it though.

* The forex market is fast and volatile.

One of the biggest disadvantages of the forex market is that it is fast and volatile. There is a huge number of participants. Although this means that you can make money fast, the downside is that you can lose money just as fast as well. Currency values can change without warning, making it difficult to accurately predict where to invest your money.

* Leverage can work against you.

Although good leverage can help you make bigger investments with smaller capital, it can also lead to losses that are greater than what you initially invested. Just as you can make $100 for every $1 of capital, you can also lose that same amount.

* Online connections may fail.

Another downside of forex trading is that your Internet connection may fail, causing you more problems. Some of the problems that you may encounter if your Internet connection goes out include incomplete transactions and inability to monitor the market. In such cases, you will be held solely responsible for the effects of disrupted Internet connection.

Other disadvantages include:

Scammers - Perhaps the most dangerous downside of forex trading is that there are many scammers out there looking to steal your identity, your money, or your financial information. Scams range from phishing scams and hacking scams to fraudulent companies and fake software. It's important to be very careful when dealing with others on the Internet. Only deal with well known, reputable, and high rated companies, brokers, and markets.

24-hour market changes - Although a 24-hour trade market can be convenient, it can also work against you. The fact that the market works around the clock means that prices and values can change at any time of the day. The market continues to move even when you are asleep or too busy to manage your forex investments. This is where the automated software comes in handy. Still, it can be dangerous to rely too much on automated software.

How to learn?
You can pretty much learn on your own although it might take you longer. You only need to learn the basics. Actually most hedge funds when training traders just give them the softwares and basics so that they can develop their own strategies. There is no defined method of making money although there are strategies out there that still work generally. Its best if you can develop your own defined strategy. Don't put too much trust on indicators or buying trading signals.
Learn money management and don't risk more than you would be willing to lose.

(Borrowed some bits from myforextips)

GOLD support and resistances.

Ran this on my model. Current resistance at 1255.58
Supports

1249.3021
1243.05559
1236.840312
1230.65611
		Resistance  1261.8579 1268.16719 1274.508025 1280.880566 1287.284968

IMF

Think IMF announce their outlook views Tuesday Jan21 at around 1430GMT. Last time I was sitting at Largad's conference. He was pretty optimistic about upgrades on outlook. UK has already been upgraded above their rivals.

MARKETS

Markets retracing lower after recent run up. NZDUSD ran into decent sized bids and looks like it will test higher towards 8300. Eurusd resistance at 1.3568 (100DMA). US is on holiday. Not much activity expected today especially in grains.

YAHOO'S OPERATING CHIEF DE CASTRO TO LEAVE

OIL

FROM SEEKING ALPHA ON MY MAIL
 
Oil ETF attracts big inflows as price declines • 9:31 AM

• Dip buyers are evident in oil as the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) attracts net inflows of more than $500M in the past two weeks - doubling AUM in the face of a slumping crude price.
• WTI crude declined from over $100 per barrel at the end of 2013 (and over $110 around Labor Day) to about $91 this week - it's since bounced to $92.83 currently.
• Saying supply growth ex-North America will disappoint, UBS is a bull on crude, upping its 2014 price targets for both Brent and WTI by $5 per barrel to $105 and $98, respectively.

OIL seems to be on a short-term bottom after failing to break lows on a second attempt. Personally still skeptical about oil bull ran, but being an intra-day trader, I can as well trade both sides.

GOLD: PROJECTED SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE INTRADAY

Booked half profits at 1235.38 and moved stoploss to entry on trade made yesterday as I had posted
Techs support:
1241.59(resistance now)

1235.38205
1229.20514
1223.059114
1216.943818
1210.859099
1204.804804
						Resistance 1248.80295 1255.046965 1261.3222 1267.628811 1273.966955 1280.336789 1286.738473 1293.172166

GBPUSD

Broke lower below rising TL, ME names said to be behind the push lower.

US inv  house
"GBP having a big move post this data. Trading down to a low of 1.6326). Many have been holding GBPUSD longs against long USD portfolios (Us included) so wouldnt be surprised if we see somemore catch up to other USD moves if 1.6320 breaks"-Milan.

I was also caught in a gbpjpy long and my small sl taken out. 

UPDATE: We have  Mark Carney on the wires atm

GREENWICH HEDGEFUND CLOSES.

"After careful consideration, QFS has concluded that the current market environment does not offer adequate risk-adjusted opportunities for fundamentally-driven quant macro strategies, and that is unlikely to change for the foreseeable future,"-CEO

That pretty much proves that markets are evolving, as more and more computer algorithms that are programmed to react like human enter in the market, traditional methods of analyzing the market through analyzing fundamental outlook of the markets and evaluating prices through models are getting invalidated. That is why hedge funds are investing in traders. Computer algorithm strategies that were profitable change and fund manager that do not continuously look to adapt to the market changes will eventually be pushed out of the market.

TECH COMPANIES

Have been very bullish on most tech companies and apple is my favorite. Samsung will likely be unable to penetrate the Chinese market due to broad offer from APPLE. Their management is good and they strategies great so far. I went long again on this share at $525 a share and expecting it to pick up through the year.

Following up on who will be the next Microsoft CEO after Ford's CEO declined offer to take over.  

FRONTIER MARKETS: KENGEN SHARES

The shares shed value at the beginning of the year due the expected dilution from the upcoming rights issue. The share has been rebounding past two trading days likely due to oversold conditions. Long-term outlook is positive but in the short-term hoping to buy some cheap at circa 10/10.50 shillings a share.

If I was a foreign investor looking for long-term growth, besides the insurance sector, energy companies like Kengen would be the way to go. Power generating company would be more attractive than distributing companies because of the risks involved and the prospects of another competitor entering the market after Parliament approved entry of competition in power distribution. Africa has a lot of potential for growth in energy due to the growing demand for power from industries being set-up and low homes power coverage. 

FRONTIER MARKETS: EABL (Kenya)

Old Mutual out recommending selling of EABL shares to ksh.240 a share. They still see the share recovering within the year. Personally I am expecting EABL earnings to drop by more than 30% with a slightly negative outlook due the uncertain business environment. The company is profitable and is still likely to attract long-term investors.

GBP

Real money names buying gbpusd and gbpjpy. I made a buy on gbpjpy at 171.25 with an open target and stoploss 170.70. Price action looks bullish imho.

China Mobile offers free iPhones

Apple currently trading at $553 in pre-market

NOMURA AGAIN

Key Japanese Investors Turning More JPY Negative- Nomuras
Personally, I have been very bullish on USDJPY, keenly watching US yields to track direction.

(Side note: Seeing a rise in blog visitors from Asia, I appreciate your readership) 

EURUSD

Running into sovereign offers circa 1.3700

MY VIEW

Yields are up. Often bullish for usd. Sold gold at 1246 in my account with sl at 1255 and first tp 1235.50. Goldman out earlier today with a sell call for gold targeting below $1050

XAUUSD

Large sellers show up in $Gold futures and remain, Gold now down -10 dollars 1241 on Large Volume (100,000oz's).

XAUUSD

Rising on rebalancing buying, one more day to go.

How A High Freak Algo Halted Bond Trading For 5 Seconds During Friday's Payrolls Release

I am fascinated by how these computer algorithms trade in the market. They are usually hidden hence making it difficult ot prosecute since no one knows how they work in the market

Here is the criminal action from Friday, in pretty charts, courtesy of Nanex:
On January 10, 2013, about 8/10ths of a second before the Labor Department released the widely anticipated Employment Situation Report, trading activity exploded in Treasury futures, sending the prices much higher in less than 1/10th of a second. The buying activity overwhelmed the 5-Year T-Note market causing a stop logic circuit breaker to trip and shut down trading for 5 seconds. During the halt in 5-Year T-Note futures, the news was officially released in Washington, D.C. - meaning that anyone wanting to trade on that news, would have to wait until the halt was lifted almost 4 seconds later (4,000,000 microseconds in high frequency trading lingo).

More here

USDJPY

US leveraged names behind the push lower.

CRUDE OIL

Iran-P5+1 nuclear agreement was to come into force on Monday this week

• The six-month agreement by which Iran will scale back its nuclear program in return for $6-7B worth of sanctions relief was supposed to start today
• Shortly afterwards, Iran and the P5+1 world powers will then begin talks over a final deal.
• There are a lot of stumbling blocks in existence, including an Iranian parliamentary bill that calls for the country to enrich uranium up to 60%. In the U.S., there are proposals in Congress to stiffen the sanctions against the country, although President Obama has pledged to veto any such measures while negotiations are taking place.
• News of the implementation of the deal follows a report that Iran is in talks with Russia for the latter country to receive 500,000 bpd of oil from Iran in return for equipment and other goods.

Crude oil broke out of its long-term uptrend and bounces have been very shallow. Break of 91.30 low might see it head much lower as supply is forecasted by OPEC to be bullish this year.  Personally I am looking for a decent bounce to sell into or sell into a clear break.

MCK trading halted

USDJPY

Re-Set USD/JPY Long Via 1-Mo Call Option With 105 Strike: Nomura. Guess we know which Japanese bank is buying the USDJPY (Zerohedge)

USDJPY

BoFAML warning that usdjpy has turned. More here

Fun fact on S&P 500

Since 1976 the S&P 500 P/E multiple has only exceeded 17x during the 1997-2000 Tech Bubble

TRADE RECOMMEND

Citi is out with a recommendation to buy usdcad with target at 1.16. I had mine higher at 1.17, but oh well :-) ...

USDJPY &USDCAD

Real money bidding usdcad at current levels. Japanese names bids seen amongst bids seen sub-103.

USDJPY

Real money name seen selling usdjpy. Likely reducing long position.

Frontier Markets (Kenya)

BAT saw huge foreign demand on Friday last week. The demand exceeded the maximum threshold allowed for foreign participation. The share attracts a lot of interest partly due to high dividend payments.

AUDUSD

The pair has been seeing increasing demand from HF names targeting 9500. They were buying on the dip to circa 8850. Pair currently ran into decent offers circa highs.

Update. Some rich investors still holding positions from as high as 9500

Blackstone's Byron Wien

 Sees US economy growing at more than 3% sending euro down to below 1.2500.
 Sees S+P rising 20% after 10% correction whilst Nikkei rising to 18,000 followed by a 20% fall and usdjpy at 120.00. Worry for aud -sees China growth at 6% as leaders rebalance economy towards consumer spending and away from investments.

Goldman Sachs

The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market as well as the median stock

Soyabeans

Chinese traders seen actively buying the futures past few days

USDJPY

The pair ran into demand sub 103. Stops seen  accumulating below 102.80 although price action suggests that a short-term bounce may play out

EMERGING MARKETS

Holding Home Afrika buy position from 5.95 and 6bob targeting 10 bob in 2-3 months. Circa 76% gain. The share is expected to rise on speculative demand.

SOMETHING I COMPILED ON MLMs

Its out of context but I hope it will be a useful read

The Federal Trade Commission in the US which regulates multi-level marketers, warned in its revised "consumer protection" page on its website as follows:

“The Not all multilevel marketing plans are legitimate. If the money you make is based on your sales to the public, it may be a legitimate multilevel marketing plan. If the money you make is based on the number of people you recruit and your sales to them, it's not. It's a pyramid scheme. Pyramid schemes are illegal, and the vast majority of participants lose money”.

business.ftc.gov/documents/inv08-bottom-line-about-multi-level-marketing-plans

A pretty simple explanation on that is: would you still make money to sustain your income if you opted not to recruit new members? As in, would the product still sell in normal circumstances not induced by the scheme? Is it a commercial product?

Our government doesn’t offer any clear guidelines on MLM businesses that is why we should expect a huge number of MLM businesses to come up.

The reason why Multi-level marketing Businesses are considered pyramid schemes is because there are a finite number of people in the world. This means that, even if the entire population of the world joined the MLM it would still reach an end point where the last people in the chain lose money effectively. It is estimated that 90% of people who join MLM businesses actually lose money.

Some of the guideline questions you should ask yourself before joining an MLM business are:

"What's the company's track record? What products does it sell? How does it back up claims it makes about its product? Is the product competitively priced? Is it likely to appeal to a large customer base? What up-front investment do you have to make to join the plan? Are you committed to making a minimum level of sales each month? Will you be required to recruit new distributors to be successful in the plan?"

Bottom line, just don’t rush into any business because of the success stories of the people at the top of the pyramid.

USDJPY

Demand resurfaced on the move lower from a Japanese name that stalled the decline.

There will re balancing buying at the comex close next 2 days. Lagard said on Friday they are looking into an alternative safe haven